In my last “Inside Cycling” column about Lance Armstrong’s proposed comeback, I showed that his age (37 this past Thursday) and his three years away from the sport need not be a handicap. Then I posed the question: “Will the seven-time Tour champ be able to improve his likely ‘competitive’ condition in February to the ‘superhuman’ fitness he will need next July to win the Tour?”

Not even Armstrong can fully answer that question, but it’s one that we can certainly address.

From the base level of fitness he has today after several weeks of training in Colorado and California (and a handful of mountain bike races), Armstrong knows that with careful monitoring from his career-long coach Chris Carmichael he can get his body back in shape by the end of the year. Gym workouts are restoring tone to his muscles; his weight is headed toward his former racing weight, even before he returns to a stricter diet; power riding on the hills is strengthening his cardiovascular fitness; and long rides (like the ones he was taking with Taylor Phinney in Aspen) are restoring his renowned endurance and stamina. In other words, he’ll be as ready as any of his prospective teammates at pre-season training camps.

Armstrong can continuing doing all of these things through the fall by just maintaining his focus and working hard in familiar surroundings — whether in California, or from his home in Austin, Texas. But then comes the difficult part: tackling his first racing season since 2005 and attaining the Superman level that marked his seven seasons of superiority. So let’s look at six factors that will decide if he can not only be as good as his potential teammates Alberto Contador and Levi Leipheimer, but much better than the likes of potential Tour rivals Carlos Sastre, Cadel Evans, Denis Menchov and Christian Vande Velde.

1) Pre-winter prep
Besides more long rides and gym workouts, Armstrong says he may ride some cyclo-cross races to continue firing up his competitive juices and to start developing his power. He will still be behind the level of most his rivals, who will take their usual short break after racing all season.

2) Tech testing
For the first time in four years, Armstrong will be taking his tech advisors to the wind tunnel to recalibrate his time-trial position and set up his new bikes for the 2009 season. Most of his rivals will probably be doing the same but Armstrong is known to be the most meticulous (and knowledgeable) of Tour contenders — and after such a long time away from the sport he will have plenty of questions of his tech team!

3) Training camps
Should he return to “Team Bruyneel” with Astana, Armstrong will have plenty of familiar faces around him; and should they return to training camp at Solvang (not far from Santa Barbara, one of the places where Armstrong has been training through the summer) the roads will be familiar. These factors should put him immediately back into the right swing and have him ready for his first big comeback race.

4) Early-season races
With talk of his making a worldwide sweep to publicize the fight against cancer in a Livestrong global initiative, Armstrong will likely be following an unusual early-season calendar. Among the possible races are Australia’s Tour Down Under (end of January), North America’s Amgen Tour of California (end of February), Asia’s Tour de Taiwan (early March), South Africa’s Giro del Capo (early March) or Cape Epic mountain bike race (end of March), South America’s Tour of Chile (early April) and North America’s Tour de Georgia (end of April). All of this is speculation at this stage; even Armstrong hasn’t decided. His rivals will likely be doing their usual events, most of them in Europe.

5) Potential handicap
Getting publicity around the world for the Livestrong cancer initiative is a clear incentive for Armstrong, but the likely promotional work and long-distance travel associated with competing in multiple continents could be extremely tiring on top of the actual racing. It’s an undertaking that few other riders would choose to do, but in his three years away from the sport he has becomes used to jetting all over the continent (and overseas) and still keeping up a reasonable fitness schedule.

6) Pre-Tour program
Following the Tour de Georgia (should he race it), Armstrong is likely to do some early scouting camps for the Tour de France (including the Monaco TT course) before heading to (perhaps, perhaps) his first Giro d’Italia — which is also happens to be the Italian race’s centennial edition. If he does race the Giro (remember he went to watch the peloton on the Mortirolo climb a few years ago, and he said he thought it was a neat race), then Armstrong would be following the same program that brought Vande Velde to perfect shape for last year’s Tour (and as others have done before, including the four five-time Tour champions, Miguel Induráin, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx and Jacques Anquetil). Should Armstrong do the Giro, that would preclude racing, like most of his rivals, the Dauphiné Libéré or Tour of Switzerland and leave the month of June to recuperate, make some more scouting trips and do his usual pre-Tour altitude camp.

There’s a lot of speculation in this possible outline of his comeback, but Armstrong says he will confirm many of the plans at the annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative on Wednesday, September 24 in New York City. That will include launching his Livestrong global cancer program and perhaps revealing his 2009 team and a preliminary list of races he wants to attend. However, all that is certain is that, like it or not, Lance Armstrong’s return to elite-level racing is for real.

Next time, we will consider what he has to say in New York next Wednesday.